Monday, May 23, 2005

Choose your Ghetto


KC Johnson, a professor of history at Brooklyn College and the CUNY Graduate
Center, asks whether a de facto test of political correctness is being required
of prospective teachers. In an article in

Higher-Ed Views
, Johnson writes:



The program at my own institution, Brooklyn College, exemplifies how
application of NCATE’s new approach can easily be used to screen out potential
public school teachers who hold undesirable political beliefs. Brooklyn’s
education faculty, which assumes as fact that “an education centered on social
justice prepares the highest quality of future teachers,” recently launched a
pilot initiative to assess all education students on whether they are
“knowledgeable about, sensitive to and responsive to issues of diversity and
social justice as these influence curriculum and pedagogy, school culture,
relationships with colleagues and members of the school community, and
candidates’ analysis of student work and behavior.”


At the undergraduate level, these high-sounding principles have been
translated into practice through a required class called “Language and
Literacy Development in Secondary Education.” According to numerous students,
the course’s instructor demanded that they recognize “white English” as the
“oppressors’ language.” Without explanation, the class spent its session
before Election Day screening Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. When several
students complained to the professor about the course’s politicized content,
they were informed that their previous education had left them “brainwashed”
on matters relating to race and social justice.



Johnson argues that a required commitment to "social justice" is sometimes
used as a proxy to require a set of political beliefs. But in a sense this
requirement only sets the seal on a long-term trend. Citing a survey "of 1,643
faculty members at 183 four-year colleges and universities" by three political
scientists, he noted that the great majority of faculty members were
self-described liberals.



Faculty members in the study were asked to place themselves on the
political spectrum, and 72 percent identified as liberal while only 15 percent
identified as conservative, with the remainder in the middle. The professors
were also asked about party affiliation, and here the breakdown was 50 percent
Democrats, 11 percent Republicans, and the rest independent and third parties.
The study also broke down the findings by academic discipline, and found that
humanities faculty members were the most likely (81 percent) to be liberal.
The liberal percentage was at its highest in English literature (88 percent),
followed by performing arts and psychology (both 84 percent), fine arts (83
percent), political science (81 percent). Other fields have more balance. The
liberal-conservative split is 61-29 in education, 55-39 in economics, 53-47 in
nursing, 51-19 in engineering, and 49-39 in business.



Some reviewers of Johnson's

work
sharply disagree. One Modern Languages professor said "I have worked
with many colleagues over the years whose political and religious affiliations
remained unknown to me. When I recommended hiring candidates, I always did so
based on their academic credentials." Another basically argued that
conservativism is positively correlated with intellectual inferiority. Hence
there was no bias.



I think that a more thorough and unbiased study will reveal that far fewer
conservative Christians opt to pursue academic careers (outside of religiously
affiliated schools) than other groups. This, as I’ve noted previously, is
because scholarship in prestigious research universities IMPLIES skepticism,
questioning, challenging assumptions, revising traditions, and subverting
dominant ideologies—goals that the most conservative scholars and students
resist. ... The real dispute is whether or not this isn’t the way that it’s
supposed to be. Just as the media must remain “liberal” enough to question and
challenge political authority, universities are, in fact, one of the remaining
bastions of liberal thinking. Conservative beliefs and attitudes already
dominate the political, religious, and social spheres in America (not to
mention public school boards around the country), and it’s quite obvious that
these recent attacks on “liberal academia” are an attempt to spread that
dominant influence into our colleges and universities. So let’s be clear on
where and why the battle lines are being drawn.



Another commentator also believed that self-selection was a factor in
creating a liberal-conservative imbalance. But he did not put it down to 'smart
people choosing a smart career'. He argued that liberals and conservatives
diverged in their job choices because they valued different kinds of careers.



there also is the issue of the pool for recruitment. Why are there no
conservatives? Probably because conservatives tend to seek private sector jobs
that pay more. In every field, the liberals are those paid the least. In
physics or political science or english, teaching faculty are paid
significantly less than those finding either private sector jobs or those in
academic administration. So, the pool for junior faculty is more liberal
because conservatives get higher paying positions in the private sector.
Inside the university, conservatives become administrators (and again, are
paid more).



To this way of thinking, each political persuasion creates its own ghetto by
self-selection in which a liberalism is as unlikely to be found in some settings
as conservativism in others. But while this may be the case it would be
different from formally requiring a political point of view as a pre-requisite
for entering into a career.

Gorgeous George Galloway 2


A number of readers (JG) and commenters have written to say that the Senate
only posts prepared statements. Therefore under those terms, Galloway will not
have submitted a statement and there is nothing unusual about it not being on
the Senate Website and I apologize for the dramatic flourish. More
interestingly, commenter

Rick Ballard
suggests (I think) that the Senate OFF hearings aren't really
going anywhere. The

Belmont Club
post said, "Unless the Oil for Food hearings have come to a
complete dead end, Coleman and Levin's examination of Galloway aren't the
pointless thrashings of Senators at a loss to respond to the devastating wit of
the British MP but tantalizing clues to the direction they wish the
investigations to take," to which Rick Ballard said:



I rarely disagree with your analysis but I see zero evidence that calling
Mr. Galloway in response to his taunting of the committee served any purpose
whatsoever. Look at the lead up to his appearance and you see pure spotlight
politics, if he comes the committee gets ink if he refuses, the committee gets
ink. On top of that add the leak of the minority report to the Guardian prior
to its publication but after the invitation to Galloway and all I see is
Washington politics as usual.


To anyone thinking that the minority report was "innoculation" against
charges that the Senate was ignoring American misdeeds wrt OFF I would ask -
why did the Dem staff spend the majority of 128 pages on transactions that
amounted to far less than 1% of the stolen OFF funds? Sen. Coleman may indeed
be a bright and honorable man but Carl Levin hisses when he speaks and can
slide through grass undetected. The Galloway/Pasqua report is here and the
minority report is

here
. Until I see full exploration of the Strong/Desmarais/Paribas links
by this committee I'm afraid that I'm going to regard it as a smokescreen. Don
Kofi is a sottocapo figurehead being set up to take a fall for Mr. Big. The
PowerCorp/Total/Final/Elf connections are where the real trail leads - that
and the material supplier kick backs - not the oil surcharges.



Maybe they are headed for a dead end. It's entirely possible that Rick
Ballard is essentially right about the Senate Committee, that it is hunting with blanks.
In this scenario there are too many places that the Oil For Food scandal
shouldn't go; owing to the extremely sensitive nature of the connections, so
only low-hanging fruit like Kojo Annan, Zhirinovsky and George Galloway are
going to take the heat. Galloway, with a kind of perverted sense of honor, may
have felt the kind of outrage a small timer feels when being made to hold the
bag and lashed out at the Senate investigation because he knows he was low man
on the totem. It would be sad if Rick Ballard were right, though it is entirely
possible. In the case the Oil For Food scandal isn't the road to justice, but
simply a fuzzy glimpse into the corrupt world of international politics in the
last years of the 20th century.

Gorgeous George Galloway


Reader KM points out in a private email that the testimony of George Galloway
before the US Senate has gone missing. According to VUNet:



The website for the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government
Affairs has removed testimony from UK MP George Galloway from its website. All
other witness testimonies for the hearings on the Oil for Food scandal are
available on the Committee's website in PDF form. But Galloway's testimony is
the only document not on the site. ... Press representatives for the Committee
had no comment.



The Senate Committee website
itself has these terse entries, here reproduced verbatim which does not say
that the testimony has been removed but that "Mr Galloway did not submit
a statement
".



Panel 1

Mark L. Greenblatt [View PDF] , Counsel , U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations

Steven A. Groves [View PDF] , Counsel , U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations

Dan M. Berkovitz [View PDF] , Counsel to the Minority , U. S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations



Panel 2

George Galloway , Member of Parliament for Bethnal Green and Bow , Great Britain

Mr Galloway did not submit a statement



Panel 3

Thomas A. Schweich [View PDF] , Chief of Staff, U.S. Mission to the United Nations , U. S. Department of State

Robert W. Werner [View PDF] , Director, Office of Foreign Assets Control , U. S. Department of the Treasury

Peter Reddaway [View PDF] , Professor Emeritus of Political Science and International Affairs , George Washington University



The declaration that "Mr Galloway did not submit a statement" is
curious given the fact that he spoke for 47 minutes before the Senate, a
performance which Christopher
Hitchens
, no admirer of Galloway, believed was a rhetorical
"humiliation" of the Senate. A verbatim transcript of Galloway's
testimony, together with a video record of the proceedings can be found at the Information
Clearing House
. To account for the discrepancy between the factual existence
of Galloway's testimony and its nonappearance in the Senate website raises the
possibility that Mr. Galloway's oral testimony is considered distinct from a
written statement by the Senate rules or it has been expunged from the record
because it puts the Senators in a bad light. But there is a third
possibility.


The really striking thing about the Galloway's testimony as transcribed by
the Information Clearing House is how the Senators and the Member of Parliament
for Bethnal Green and Bow were pursuing a non-collision course. Galloway had
come to score press and public relations points at which, by all accounts, he
was successful at doing. But Senator Coleman and Levin seemed totally
uninterested in responding to Galloway's sharp political jibes. It was almost as
if the Senators were deaf to his political posturing. Instead, they focused
exclusively and repeatedly on two things: Galloway's relationship with Fawaz
Zureikat and Tariq Aziz. Zureikat was a board member of Galloway's Mariam
foundation who is also implicated in the Oil For Food deals. Tariq Aziz was
Saddam's vice president.



SEN. COLEMAN: If I can get back to Mr. Zureikat one more time. Do you
recall a time when he specifically -- when you had a conversation with him
about oil dealings in Iraq?


GALLOWAY: I have already answered that question. I can assure you, Mr.
Zureikat never gave me a penny from an oil deal, from a cake deal, from a
bread deal, or from any deal. He donated money to our campaign, which we
publicly brandished on all of our literature, along with the other donors to
the campaign.


SEN. COLEMAN: Again, Mr. Galloway, a simple question. I'm looking for
either a yes or no. Did you ever have a conversation with Mr. Zureikat where
he informed you that he had oil dealings with Iraq, yes or no?


GALLOWAY: Not before this Daily Telegraph report, no. ...


SEN. CARL LEVIN (D): Thank you, Mr. Galloway.


Mr. Galloway, could you take a look at the Exhibit Number 12...


GALLOWAY: Yes.


SEN. LEVIN: ... where your name is in parenthesis after Mr. Zureikat's?--


GALLOWAY: Before Mr. Zureikat's, if I'm looking at the right exhibit--


SEN. LEVIN: I'm sorry. I was going to finish my sentence -- my question,
though. My question was, where your name is in parenthesis after Mr.
Zureikat's company.


GALLOWAY: I apologize, Senator.


SEN. LEVIN: That's all right. Now, that document--assuming it's an accurate
translation of the document underneath it--would you... you're not alleging
here today that the document is a forgery, I gather?


GALLOWAY: Well, I have no idea, Senator, if it's a forgery or not.


SEN. LEVIN: But you're not alleging.


GALLOWAY: I'm saying that the information insofar as it relates to me is
fake.


SEN. LEVIN: I -- is wrong?


GALLOWAY: It's wrong.


SEN. LEVIN: But you're not alleging that the document...


GALLOWAY: Well, I have no way of knowing, Senator.


SEN. LEVIN: That's fine. So you're not alleging?


GALLOWAY: No, I have no way -- I have no way of knowing. This is the first
time...


SEN. LEVIN: Is it fair to say since you don't know, you're not alleging?


GALLOWAY: Well, it would have been nice to have seen it before today.


SEN. LEVIN: Is it fair to say, though, that either because you've not seen
it before or because -- otherwise, you don't know. You're not alleging the
document's a fake. Is that fair to say?


GALLOWAY: I haven't had it in my possession long enough to form a view
about that.


SEN. LEVIN: All right. Would you let the subcommittee know after you've had
it in your possession long enough whether you consider the document a fake.


GALLOWAY: Yes, although there is a -- there is an academic quality about
it, Senator Levin, because you have already found me guilty before you --
before you actually allowed me to come here and speak for myself.


SEN. LEVIN: Well, in order to attempt to clear your name, would you...


GALLOWAY: Well, let's be clear about something.


SEN. LEVIN: Well, let me finish my question. Let me be clear about that,
first of all. Would you submit to the subcommittee after you've had a chance
to review this document whether or not, in your judgment, it is a forgery?
Will you do that?


GALLOWAY: Well, if you will give me the original. I mean, this is not --
presumably, you wrote this English translation.


SEN. LEVIN: Yes, and there's a copy underneath it of the...


GALLOWAY: Well, yes, there is a copy of a gray blur. If you'll give me --
if you'll give me the original ...


SEN. LEVIN: The copy of the original.


(CROSSTALK)


GALLOWAY: Give me the original in a decipherable way, then of course
I'll...


SEN. LEVIN: That would be fine. We appreciate that.


GALLOWAY: Yes.



It is clear that Coleman and Levin were attempting to pin Galloway down on
what he knew and when he knew it. They were also attempting to get him to
categorically declare himself on the veracity of the Zureikat document. In the
end, Galloway denied talking to Zureikat about oil deals with Saddam before it
became a public issue. He also undertook to evaluate the veracity of the
document which named him -- in parenthesis admittedly -- in one a document
related to Oil for Food.



SEN. LEVIN: ... I wanted just to ask you about Tariq Aziz.


GALLOWAY: Yeah.


SEN. LEVIN: Tariq Aziz. You've indicated you, you--who you didn't talk to
and who you did talk to. Did you have conversations with Tariq Aziz about the
award of oil allocations? That's my question.


GALLOWAY: Never.


SEN. LEVIN: Thank you. I'm done. Thank you.


SEN. COLEMAN: Just one follow-up on the Tariq Aziz question. How often did
you uh ... Can you describe the relation with Tariq Aziz?


GALLOWAY: Friendly.


SEN. COLEMAN: How often did you meet him?


GALLOWAY: Many times.


SEN. COLEMAN: Can you give an estimate of that?


GALLOWAY: No. Many times.


SEN. COLEMAN: Is it more than five?


GALLOWAY: Yes, sir.


SEN. COLEMAN: More than ten?


GALLOWAY: Yes.


SEN. COLEMAN: Fifteen? Around fifteen?


GALLOWAY: Well, we're getting nearer, but I haven't counted. But many
times. I'm saying to you "Many times," and I'm saying to you that I
was friendly with him.


SEN. COLEMAN: And you describe him as "a very dear friend"?


GALLOWAY: I think you've quoted me as saying "a dear, dear
friend." I don't often use the double adjective, but--


SEN. COLEMAN: --I was looking into your heart on that.--


GALLOWAY: --but "friend" I have no problem with. Senator, just
before you go on--I do hope that you'll avail yourself of this dossier that I
have produced. And I am really speaking through you to Senator Levin. This is
what I have said about Saddam Hussein.


SEN. COLEMAN: Well, we'll enter that into the record without objection. I
have no further questions of the witness. You're excused, Mr. Galloway.


GALLOWAY: Thank you very much.



In the exchange above it is abundantly clear that both Coleman and Levin
simply wanted to enter Galloway's denial of having discussed Oil for Food
business with Tariq Aziz in the record. Levin immediately ends his questioning
after eliciting Galloway's "Never". Coleman is content to merely
establish that Aziz and Galloway were
"friends" who had met "many times" before saying "I
have no further questions of the witness".


Unless the Oil for Food hearings have come to a complete dead end, Coleman
and Levin's examination of Galloway aren't the pointless thrashings of Senators
at a loss to respond to the devastating wit of the British MP but
tantalizing clues to the direction they wish the investigations to take. The
question that must have been in Galloway's mind -- and which is uppermost in
mine -- is what else did the Senators know? The persons named by the Senate investigation so far -- Zhirinovsky, Pasqua and Galloway -- reads less like a list of principals than a list of fixers. The truly remarkable thing about Galloway's many meetings with Tariq Aziz was how much time the Iraqi was willing to devote to an obscure British backbencher with no official power. The unspoken question is why Saddam should take the trouble to bribe Galloway, if it were Galloway who was being bribed. The Senators were building a causal bridge to something, but to what? I am in no position to say, but will guess that Galloway's testimony and its disappearance from the Senate website can only be understood in the context of what Coleman and Levin were trying to achieve. My own sense is that the investigations are cautiously nearing far bigger game than George Galloway; but that his evidence or his refusal to give it is somehow crucial to achieving this larger goal. Other pieces of the puzzle may exist but there are two the public know about which may cast an interesting light in hindsight on Galloway's words. The first is contained in the Volcker Commission files which investigator Robert Parton turned over to the Senate Committee and the second is the forthcoming trial of Saddam Hussein and Tariq Aziz. George Galloway may have appeared in the Senate but even he must be uncertain, until
the missing pieces are played on the board, what he really said.

Sunday, May 22, 2005

The High Hand


Glenn
Reynolds
notes that the New York Times coverage of prisoner abuse in
Afghanistan may not really be about prisoner abuse or even Afghanistan, but
about maintaining the prestige of Newsweek. He calls it "circling
the wagons", the idea being to teach press critics an object lesson in how
expensive it is to humiliate the mass media by catching them at sloppy reporting
by flooding the zone with stories similar to the one which was discredited .
That may or may not be the case, but it is nearly undeniable that the effect of
the media's coverage of American misdeeds has been to make the slightest
infraction against enemy combatants ruinously expensive. Not only the treatment
of the enemy combatants themselves, but their articles of religious worship have
become the subject of such scrutiny that Korans must handled with actual gloves
in a ceremonial fashion, a fact that must be triumph for the jihadi cause
in and of itself. While nothing is wrong with ensuring the proper treatment of
enemy prisoners, the implicit moral superiority that has been accorded America's
enemy and his effects recalls Rudyard Kipling's The
Grave of the Hundred Dead
.


Kipling described how the 19th century Indian Army maintained the myth of the
Raj and upheld his prestige to compensate for their small numbers and military
weakness. When a Subaltern of the First Shikaris is slain in a jungle ambush,
his men know that they must teach the Burmans, first and foremost, how blasphemous
it was to hurt one of the elect. For the sake of their masters and themselves
the Shikaris raid the home village of the foe and slay them to the last man.
"And Sniders squibbed no more; for the Burmans said that a white man's
head must be paid for with heads five-score
". Kipling's verse finds its
modern analogue not in punitive visitations against "insurgent"
strongholds in Afghanistan or Iraq -- which would be eagerly reported by the
press if they could at all find them -- but in calls for the arrest of the
American President or the dismissal of the the Secretary of Defense for a
handful of cases of prisoner abuse gleaned from a global battlefield.


For example,
a court in The Hague turned down a demand by a dozen plaintiffs who wanted to
force the Dutch government to arrest US President George W Bush when he visits
the Netherlands. Donald Rumsfeld has been repeatedly asked to resign over
'widespread prison' abuse in Abu Ghraib. The point of these calls for lopsided
retribution is to drive home just how dangerous it is to trifle with sacred
person and belief system of the enemy. It aims to paralyze anyone who even
contemplates such an act of lese majeste. The modern "grave of a hundred
dead" isn't a pyramid of skulls over the tomb of British Subaltern: it's an
American Secretary of Defense's head on a stake over a photograph of a jihadi
wearing a pair of panties as a hat. It is front-page calls for an abject
American apology for flushing a Koran down a toilet even if it was never
flushed down a toilet at all, except on the pages of Newsweek. It is
calls for an admission of guilt if only the mere possibility of guilt existed.
And if that were not psychological domination at par with the worst the British
Empire could offer in its heyday then nothing is. There are Empires today of a
different sort, but they maintain the power by much the same means.



There'll be some who say that toppling Saddam was meant to be an object lesson to the Arab world. If so, it has sent mixed messages because it was never prosecuted with the kind of frightening brutality that some have advocated. The image of the US after OIF is one of a giant afraid to hurt or even give offense to its enemies. Even in the battles of the First and Second Fallujah there were always extraordinary efforts to preserve mosques and similar places, probably to the glee and wonderment of the enemy. If the Kevin Sites incident and the subsequent investigation proved
anything it was that the Marines were no Shikaris.



But if the US has been at pains to avoid the image of ruthlessness, the enemy by contrast has made a special effort to magnify his brutality by attacking mosques, beheading women, mutilating children, etc. often on camera. And the really disappointing thing it is that the intended intimidation works. If George Galloway's standard response to his critics is a lawsuit and radical Islam's first recourse is a
fatwa then terror's first answer to insult is always the Grave of a Hundred Dead. Intimidation brings them respect from the very people who style themselves immune to intimidation.
It is plain to the lowliest stringer from the most obscure tabloid
that to insult America is cheap but to insult the local 'militants' very, very expensive. Kipling's cynical dictum is proven again and the lesson not forgotten.



We live in a strange world where the Beslan story vanishes in weeks while Abu Ghraib lives on for years. Maybe it reflects the inherent importance of the stories but it more probably demonstrates the media's ability to prolong the life of some stories while ignoring others. I hope it is not impertinent to observe that the media's demeanor towards terrorism bears more than a passing resemblance to cheap cowardice; but though outwardly similar it really springs from a high-minded idealism, deep courage and profound learning. Or so I hope.













The Grave of a Hundred Dead

There's a widow in sleepy Chester

Who weeps for her only son;

There's a grave on the Pabeng River,

A grave that the Burmans shun;

And there's Subadar Prag Tewarri

Who tells how the work was done.




A Snider squibbed in the jungle-

Somebody laughed and fled,

And the men of the First Shikaris

Picked up their Subaltern dead,

With a big blue mark in his forehead

And the back blown out of his head.


Subadar Prag Tewarri,

Jemadar Hira Lal,

Took command of the party,

Twenty rifles in all,

Marched them down to the river

As the day was beginning to fall.


They buried the boy by the river,

A blanket over his face-

They wept for their dead Lieutenant,

The men of an alien race-

They made a samadh in his honour,

A mark for his resting-place.


For they swore by the Holy Water,

They swore by the salt they ate,

That the soul of Lieutenant Eshmitt Sahib

Should go to his God in state,

With fifty file of Burmans

To open him Heaven's Gate.


The men of the First Shikaris

Marched till the break of day,

Till they came to the rebel village

The village of Pabengmay-

A jingal covered the clearing,

Caltrops hampered the way.


Subadar Prag Tewarri,

Bidding them load with ball,

Halted a dozen rifles

Under the village wall;

Sent out a flanking-party

With Jemadar Hira Lal.


The men of the First Shikaris

Shouted and smote and slew,

Turning the grinning jingal

On to the howling crew.

The Jemadar's flanking-party

Butchered the folk who flew.

Long was the morn of slaughter,

Long was the list of slain,

Five score heads were taken,

Five score heads and twain;

And the men of the First Shikaris

Went back to their grave again,



Each man bearing a basket

Red as his palms that day,

Red as the blazing village-

The village of Pabengmay

And the "drip-drip-drip" from the baskets

Reddened the grass by the way


They made a pile of their trophies

High as a tall man's chin,

Head upon head distorted,

Set in a sightless grin,

Anger and pain and terror

Stamped on the smoke-scorched skin.


Subadar Prag Tewarri

Put the head of the Boh

On the top of the mound of triumph,

The head of his son below-

With the sword and the peacock banner

That the world might behold and know.


Thus the samadh was perfect,

Thus was the lesson plain

Of the wrath of the First Shikaris-

The price of white man slain;

And the men of the First Shikaris

Went back into camp again.


Then a silence came to the river,

A hush fell over the shore,

And Bohs that were brave departed,

And Sniders squibbed no more;

For the Burmans said

That a white man's head

Must be paid for with heads five-score.




There's a widow in sleepy Chester

Who weeps for her only son;

There's a grave on the Pabeng River,

A grave that the Burmans shun;

And there's Subadar Prag Tewarri

Who tells how the work was done.


Thursday, May 19, 2005

The Great White North


The drama surrounding attempts by Canadian PM Paul Martin to hang on to power
by ignoring a no confidence vote and then offering a Conservative oppositionist
a Cabinet post to switch sides has taken an dramatic turn. Conservative
Canadian MP Gurmant Grewal tape recorded an attempt by the Prime Minister's
chief of staff, Tim Murphy to bribe him to change his vote. Andrew
Coyne
highlights some snippets of the recorded conversation which are best
heard against the background of squeezebox music playing  'Speak softly, love, so no one hears us but the sky.
...'



Murphy: "if anybody is asked the question, 'Well is there a deal?' and
you say, 'No.' Well you want that to be the truth. ... So you didn't
approach. We didn't approach."



A recent Belmont
Club
post noted that 'victories' won by the Left with these tactics were
more properly understood as acts of desperation by those who feared their long
term
decline, as if in slipping from the pinnacle, they despaired of ever
regaining it again.



The survival of Paul Martin's government, shaken by scandal after scandal,
has been bought at the price of violating the spirit of the Westminister
system by ignoring what was effectively a vote of no-confidence until
they could bribe someone to cross the aisle to square the count. Martin
survived but only by bending the rulebook. A Canadian conservative victory
without Martin's shennanigans would have been an unremarkable and narrow
electoral triumph. But the Liberal Party of Canada's actions now mean that the
issues dividing political factions in the Great White North are fundamental.
By demonstrating a determination to hold on to power at all costs Martin is
increasing the likelihood of a radical, rather than an incremental solution to
the Canadian crisis.



Mark Steyn has more in his article A
Constitutional Coup



In the forthcoming Western Standard , I make the point that “the big flaw
at the heart of the Westminster system is that in order to function as
intended – by codes and conventions – it depends on a certain modesty and
circumspection from the political class.” Perhaps it was always a long shot
to expect a man as hollow as Paul Martin to understand that. ... But the fact
remains: by any understanding of our system of government, if the effect of
“an extra week’s delay” is to maintain themselves in power by one vote
they otherwise would not have had, it’s hard to see this as anything other
than a constitutional coup. Like Robert Mugabe, Paul Martin has simply
declared that the constitution is whatever he says it is.



What characterizes much of the Left today as exemplified by behavior from
George Galloway to Paul Martin is the increasing necessity to maintain their
position By Any Means Necessary. While that is dangerous and infuriating, it is
a reliable indicator that they have lost control of the system. Things just
aren't working the way they used to. And that, despite everything, is cause for
hope.

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

The Road to Perdition


Two factors that are normally considered in evaluating the outcome of a
contemplated action are encapsulated in the notion of an expected value.
An expected value is calculated from two independent components: the probability
of an outcome and the 'payoff' of that outcome, where a 'payoff' can be
negative: that is, a loss. But into the mathematics comes the human factor,
expressed in our risk/return profile. People can choose between two
mathematically equal expected values depending on their degree of risk aversion.
For example, in making a wager, one might be willing to accept a large risk of
losing a small amount and but be unwilling to take a small risk of losing a very
large amount, even though they may have the same expected value. That's why few
people are willing to play Russian roulette even for large sums of money.


In relation to the Newsweek Koran story fiasco, the existence of a
wartime situation distorts the editorial process to the degree that it increases
the consequences of a mistake. The probability of making an editorial mistake
may be the same as it was ten years ago, given the same standards of news
confirmation, but the consequences of an error may have drastically increased in
a post-September 11 world where news is disseminated to distant combat zones in
the blink of an eye. Newspapers are not alone in facing drastically changed
payoff profiles for traditionally accepted practices. By the standards of World
War 2 the modern US military has objectively reduced the probability of
civilian casualties, prisoner abuse, etc to a degree that General Eisenhower or
MacArthur would never have dreamed possible. Unfortunately, the political
consequences of those events have grown to such an extent that their increase
dominates the reduction in probability in the final product -- the expected
value.


All of this is common sense, but it is easy to forget when one is blamed for
doing what has always been done. The consequential difference between Woodward's
'Deep Throat' and Isikoff's 'anonymous source' is not necessarily the character
or competence of one over the other; nor even the veracity of their informants.
It's the thirty years between their stories: it's the fact that there's a war
on. In the world of probability times payoff, good intentions are not a factor.
Whether one means well or acts maliciously is irrelevant to changing the
practical outcome of an event. Thus, the US military has learned it is not
enough not to desire reducing collateral damage, it is important to
create systems and procedures to achieve this. The

small diameter bomb
, special targeting software to reduce the footprint of
blasts, training, and many other programs costing billions are a more serous
proof that avoiding civilian casualties is a priority than any number of
heartfelt declarations, however sincere. Because if the size of the payoff has
grown, one had better damn well lower the probability to keep the expected value
constant.


So when Newsweek went to press with the Koran story on the basis of an
anonymous informant and no confirmation (other one denial from an official and
the absence of a denial from another) it was not really doing anything
untraditional, but it had failed to take into account the changed nature of the
world. The US Air Force could well have argued that sending massed formations of
heavy bombers to carpet-bomb the Muslim world was not any different from what
Curtis Le May and Air Marshall Arthur Harris did during the 'Good War'; but that
would have been absurd. The amazing thing is how long it took to understand how
the times had changed for the Press as well. That may be in part because the Press is spared the immediate and terrible
feedback of combat, to which the military is continuously subjected. The
military effort to reduce collateral damage is driven largely by self-interest:
the need to avoid unnecessary hostility from civilians in combat zones and to
maintain political acceptability for its assigned missions. The requirements of
survival have forced the military to evolve. But the Press in holding itself
above responsibility has escaped into a kind of Lost World which is even now
being shaken by a cataclysm.

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

The Agent 2


The
Drudgereport
carried a report of this strangely shrill exchange at a press
briefing between Bush spokesman Scott McClellan and reporters. The words in the
exchange are important, but not nearly as significant as the atmospherics which
evoke Edvard Munch's

The Scream
.



Q With respect, who made you the editor of Newsweek? Do you think it's
appropriate for you, at that podium, speaking with the authority of the
President of the United States, to tell an American magazine what they should
print?


MR. McCLELLAN: I'm not telling them. I'm saying that we would encourage
them to help --


Q You're pressuring them.


MR. McCLELLAN: No, I'm saying that we would encourage them --


Q It's not pressure?


MR. McCLELLAN: Look, this report caused serious damage to the image of the
United States abroad. And Newsweek has said that they got it wrong. I think
Newsweek recognizes the responsibility they have. We appreciate the step that
they took by retracting the story. Now we would encourage them to move forward
and do all that they can to help repair the damage that has been done by this
report. And that's all I'm saying. But, no, you're absolutely right, it's not
my position to get into telling people what they can and cannot report....


Q Are you asking them to write a story about how great the American
military is; is that what you're saying here?


MR. McCLELLAN: Elisabeth, let me finish my sentence. Our military --


Q You've already said what you're -- I know what -- how it ends.


MR. McCLELLAN: No, I'm coming to your question, and you're not letting me
have a chance to respond. But our military goes out of their way to handle the
Koran with care and respect. There are policies and practices that are in
place. This report was wrong. Newsweek, itself, stated that it was wrong. And
so now I think it's incumbent and -- incumbent upon Newsweek to do their part
to help repair the damage. And they can do that through ways that they see
best, but one way that would be good would be to point out what the policies
and practices are in that part of the world, because it's in that region where
this report has been exploited and used to cause lasting damage to the image
of the United States of America. It has had serious consequences. And so
that's all I'm saying, is that we would encourage them to take steps to help
repair the damage. And I think that they recognize the importance of doing
that. That's all I'm saying.


Q As far as the Newsweek article is concerned, first, how and where the
story came from? And do you think somebody can investigate if it really
happened at the base, and who told Newsweek? Because somebody wrote a story.



The resentment is palpable. Not the resentment of the spokesman of a
Commander in Chief of a military vilified in an article that has already been
retracted, but the resentment of reporters whose prerogatives have been
questioned. "With respect, who made you the editor of Newsweek?", one asks.
McClellan actually cannot finish a sentence in answer, because one of the
prerogatives of this particular reporter is to ask the questions. "You've
already said what you're -- I know what -- how it ends." And the question,
although put in different words each time, is monomanaically the same: when did
you stop beating your wife? "As far as the Newsweek article is concerned, first,
how and where the story came from? And do you think somebody can investigate if
it really happened at the base, and who told Newsweek? Because somebody wrote a
story." And because "somebody wrote a story" the presumption was that the story
had to be true, the retraction notwithstanding, as if it never existed, as if
the retraction were completely irrelevant from the discussion. In a sense it is,
because there was never a retraction. There may have been words which resembled
a retraction, but it was never, ever really made because it is absolutely impossible to ever make it.

Three Weddings and a Funeral


Four apparently disconnected events in the past few days have served as the
bellweather in the crisis called the Global War on Terror, a name now too narrow to
be apt, because it has entailed a confrontation not only between terror and
civilization but also Muslims and Christians, Left and Right, Democracy and
Facism, the Old World and the New and much else. The four events are the George
Galloway testimony before the US Senate; the survival through questionable
constitutional tactics of the Liberal Government in Canada; the retraction by
Newsweek
of its Koran-flushing story and finally, the events in Uzbekistan.


The thread common to Galloway, the manuevers of the Canadian Paul Martin
administration and Newsweek article is the extent to which the
once-magisterial Left is now resorting to the shrillest and cheapest tactics as
defensive maneuvers. Take George Galloway. His grandstand performance before the
Coleman committee was brilliant employment of a weak hand. Galloway understood
his weakness on substantive issues and turned his testimony into a screed,
attempting to change the ground of the debate. It was wonderful theater, but
still a weak hand. The Coleman hearings are about Oil For Food; lost in the
noise is the essential fact that Galloway was a loose cannon under oath. In his
blather he has connected some dots which are going to stay connected, long after
Galloway's fifteen minutes of media fame have faded. I think George Galloway
will see his theatrical performance replayed more often than he would like.


The survival of Paul Martin's government, shaken by scandal after scandal, 
has been bought at the price of violating the spirit of the Westminister system
by ignoring after what was effectively a vote of no-confidence until they could
bribe someone to cross the aisle to square the count. Martin survived but only
by bending the rulebook. A Canadian conservative victory without Martin's
shennanigans would have been an unremarkable and narrow electoral triumph. But
the Liberal Party of Canada's actions now mean that the issues dividing
political factions in the Great White North are fundamental. By demonstrating a
determination to hold on to power at all costs Martin is increasing the
likelihood of a radical, rather than an incremental solution to the Canadian
crisis.


The Newsweek affair was, in its way, a demonstration of how the mighty
have fallen. The Koran-flushing story can only be understood in the context of
the media's unexpected failure to play is accustomed role in the shaping the
agenda on the War on Terror, the debate over the United Nations and above all,
the 2004 elections. Watching Newsweek build a vaporous story and getting
caught out is like seeing a once great prize-fighter resorting to eye-gouging,
headbutting and ear-biting on his inevitable slide down into the undercard. Like
Galloway and Martin, the Newsweek performance is one of ferocity, but
ferocity in decline. There was a time when the Left was represented by the
Jaures and the Jean Paul Sartres. Franco Molina once wrote a line for a Para general in the Battle of
Algiers
: 'Why is it that the Sartres are all born on the other side?" The
Left could afford to speak down to its critics. But if Solina had waited a few
decades more he would have seen them replaced by George Galloway, Michael Moore,
Robert Fisk and Ward Churchill, who now await only the arrival of Bozo the Clown
to become the Five Amigos.


The bad news comes not from the headlines but the backpages, in Uzbekistan
where it is possible that the United States, in throwing in with President
Karimov, has entered into a tactical alliance with a tyrant against radical
Islamism: making him an ally -- yes -- but a tyrant just the same. Dan Darling
at
Winds of Change
lays the case out dispassionately for his quondam utility
and possible future liability.



Karimov runs an exceedingly tight and draconian ship, but until quite
recently ... the majority of the population was hesitant about standing up to
him either because they thought that he may be a tyrant and a strongman, but
that in so doing he held the country together and prevented it from descending
into chaos. ... This is one of the reasons why this protest/rebellion,
regardless of the cause, is such a significant development: it means that for
a growing number of Uzbeks, the view of Karimov as being a necessary evil has
now weakened to the point where large numbers of them are able to protest or
even take up arms against his government, with the latter in particular being
a pretty big indication that somebody in Uzbekistan thinks they have a chance
of bringing down his regime. ... The willingness to stand up to Karimov (the
fact that these protests are even occurring is a sign of the impotency of his
fearsome police state) is probably a good thing in the long run in the sense
of eventually producing a stable democracy in the country. On the flip side,
it also provides some definite windows of opportunity for Hizb-ut-Tahrir and
the IMU to exploit if they can move quickly, since both groups have been at
the forefront of visible opposition to the regime.



This survey of events suggests (and it just my opinion) that the real strategic
danger to the cause of freedom and democracy isn't from the noisemakers of the Left
but from the temptation to betray principles for tactical gain. It lies on the
very same path that Galloway, Martin and Newsweek, in their cunning, have
taken. The Left hitched its wagon to the worst men of the 20th and 21st century
and it is dragging them into the dustbin of history. Let's go the other way.

Monday, May 16, 2005

The Agent


The Agency Problem arises when a conflict of interest arises between a
principal and his agent. The press often represents itself as an 'agent' of the
larger society, a seeker after the truth on behalf of the public. It is
perfectly legitimate to ask whether a conflict of interest can arise between the
media and the public. A moment's reflection is enough to establish it is not
always the case that the press -- whether a newspaper or an individual blogger
-- has interests which completely coincide with the general public because any
media entity is a proper subset of the public: being a part it cannot be the
whole. In the case of the Newsweek decision to print a poorly sourced
story on the descreation of a Koran at Guantanamo Naval Base it is pertinent to
ask how the costs and benefits of the magazine's action would be distributed;
whether the interests of the agent substantially coincide with the principal --
the public -- in whose name the press often claims to act. But any boost in
circulation would accrue benefits to the employees and stockholders of
Newsweek
and not to general members of the public unless they had shares. It
is equally clear that any externalities arising from the Koran story would not
normally be borne by Newsweek. Though people might die, places destroyed
or riots occur they would not likely happen to people or places associated with
Newsweek.


The fallacy in the argument, of course, is the premise that Newsweek
acts as an agent for the general public. It isn't, and is free from any
responsibility as a public agent in the uproar it has caused by its retracted
story. Newsweek is not an agent, but the purveyor of a product for which
there happens to be a market protected by the First Amendment. This should be
clear, and there is nothing wrong with it. But the question arises: to what
extent is a commercial organization free to dump the external costs of their
business on others. For historical and political reasons, society has been
reluctant to make the purveyors of this sort of information accountable for the
full cost of their speech, reasoning it would be better for society -- the
Commons -- to bear the externality than to risk restricting expression. As in
any case where an economic actor does not bear the entire cost of its actions,
there is a tendency to overexploit the capacity of the Commons; to privately
appropriate the gains and leave the effluent on the village green to be swept up
by everyone else.


In this specific case, it is possible to entirely dispose of the argument
that responsbility is somehow the "Bush Adminstration's" because Newsweek
itself has retracted the Koran story. Whatever else the "Bush Administration"
may be guilty of, it is not guilty in this particular case; but since
Newsweek
will not bear the costs of its mistake (because it is under no
agency obligation to do so) it is equally clear that the costs must be borne by
someone else in this particular case also: by the Commons; in this instance
largely by the elected agents of the public, i.e. the government and its
representatives, that is, by someone in Afghanistan or Iraq.


The interesting question is what should prevent this from happening again and
the answer, insofar as I can see, is nothing. The system works that way by
design choice. One thing that may create pressure for change is the increasing
cost of dumping such externalities onto the Commons. In a world where certain
groups are likely to detonate car bombs or radiological devices in response to
any real or imagined slight, the Commons may be unable to bear the external
costs of news organizations mindlessly purveying inflammatory and poorly-sourced
news products. That is essentially the argument for censorship in wartime. Yet
censorship itself imposes such huge costs that it is questionable whether such a
cure would be better than the disease. In the past the choice of evils was
avoided by resorting to social pressure like appeals to patriotism or personal
requests. A newsmagazine in 1944 would probably not even considered publishing
the equivalent of the Koran story on the basis of the slightest of sources and
without any collateral confirmation whatsoever. But we're not in Kansas any
more. Without that self restraint there is nothing for it but for the Commons to
keep bearing the full cost of Newsweek-type journalism until the system
snaps, to the detriment of all.

Sunday, May 15, 2005

Not Good Enough



The error, according to the

Washington Post
, happened in this way:



"We regret that we got any part of our story wrong, and extend our
sympathies to victims of the violence and to the U.S. soldiers caught in its
midst," Newsweek Editor Mark Whitaker wrote in a note to readers.  In an
issue dated May 9, the magazine reported that U.S. military investigators had
found evidence that interrogators placed copies of Islam's holy book in
washrooms and had flushed one down the toilet to get inmates to talk.


Whitaker wrote that the magazine's information came from "a knowledgeable
U.S. government source," and before publishing the item, writers Michael
Isikoff and John Barry sought comment from two Defense Department officials.
One declined to respond, and the other challenged another part of the story
but did not dispute the Quran charge, Whitaker said.


But on Friday, a top Pentagon spokesman told the magazine that a review of
the military's investigation concluded "it was never meant to look into
charges of Quran desecration. The spokesman also said the Pentagon had
investigated other desecration charges by detainees and found them 'not
credible.'" Also, Whitaker added, the magazine's original source later said he
could not be sure he read about the alleged Quran incident in the report
Newsweek cited, and that it might have been in another document.



Many ordinary bloggers, especially those with connections to the military, or
those who have stumbled across significant open source information, self-censor
themselves out of a sense of decency and caution whenever they come across
information which may cause the loss of life. And they don't even make money
from blogs, apart from a few bucks a month which go into expenses, the purchase
of a few books or subscription to online information services. But not
Newsweek
, which is a professional and prestigious publication. Newsweek
is admitting to starting an international political firestorm, which got actual
people killed, caused civil disturbances, endangered the lives of American
troops and significantly set back US efforts in the war on terror because they
ran a story from an anonymous source who cannot even remember if he told them
what they said he told them. Their efforts at  "confirmation" yielded a
denial and a non-denial from Defense officials, but no confirmation. In
predicate calculus, Newsweek asserted P. Their attempts at
confirmation yielded ~P and Null. Hence they concluded P,
which is wrong, wrong and wrong. It is wrong from the pont of view of elementary
logic. It would be wrong anywhere, even in the Andromeda Galaxy. But apparently
it is right at Newsweek.


Newsweek magazine should forthwith compensate the Afghans who died as
a result of their baseless, and I mean baseless, story. Even if it turns out, as
result of further investigation, that a Quran has somewhere, somehow been
flushed down a toilet by somebody, it will not alter the fact that as matters
stand, their Guantanamo story hasn't got a leg to stand on.



Update


I agree with some of the commenters who say this Newsweek incident
should not pass unpunished, though I am at a loss to see how retribution will be
forthcoming. Lawyers would be in a better position to see what avenues of
redress are open to those who have been substantially hurt by this pathetic and
irresponsible reporting. The most obvious victims are those died in riots which
were sparked by the Newsweek story. But there are probably still others who
have not yet paid the price for this bungling, most notably US and allied troops
in the field. Greater damage still is the ill-will that has wrongfully spread by
this "news" magazine, which may indirectly cause or prevent the frustration of a
future terrorist incident. The so-called apology offered by Newsweek,
with its unreprentant undertones, falls far short of controlling the damage they
themselves are responsible for; not merely to their reputation, of which there
is little left to save, but to the lives that have been shattered and will yet be.

Thursday, May 12, 2005

The Acme Blogger Kit


Glenn
Reynolds
is designing the 'Acme Blogger Reporter' kit, for guys who want to
be citizen reporters, just as an intellectual exercise of indicating what they should have. His kit includes a laptop, digital camera and video
editing software. It's a good, capable suite, but somewhat expensive and heavy.
Although good for covering press conferences, hosted events and meetings, it is
less than ideal for events in which the blogger's physical mobility and
inconspicuousness are  essential. For example, I can't imagine myself
carrying a laptop and a long-lens camera around in West Africa, although I admit
that's a somewhat extreme example. An alternative setup, which might be dubbed the "Caveman Blogging Kit" would consist of the following:



  • a 4-5 megapixel point and shoot digital camera that will fit in your shirt
    pocket. It should take AA batteries and have some video and sound capture
    capabilities. With a half gig memory card this ought to cost about $400.

  • a one gig USB storage key. Cost, about $100, maybe less.

  • access to online file storage where you can dump files via FTP. Cost may
    vary. Say $10 a month.


For computers I would live off the land using internet cafes and
coin-operated type arrangements because the real constraint on the road isn't
finding a computer but finding one with a broadband connection. You can download
stuff from the camera onto your USB key via adapters, so that in a pinch all you
need to carry around is the USB key. You can empty the USB onto your domain
subdirectory. This suite is unnecessarily unwieldy for covering conferences and
similar events. You have almost no image processing capability. No video editing
capabilty. But if you can make arrangements with someone at home base to process
the stuff you leave in your online storage, the image editing limitations can be
solved. In fact, there might a small business opportunity in processing
dropped-off images and video.



Update


One of the readers recommends using a Treo
600
for the Cavemen Blogger role. It has a built-in QWERTY keyboard.

Matdador 2


The Associated
Press
has this report originating from across the Syrian border on Operation
Matador
.



From their rooftops, Syrians in frontier towns watched airstrikes and
battles on the other side of the Iraqi border, where U.S. forces are fighting
insurgents in an offensive raging uncomfortably close to Syria's doorstep.
Rawaf Hamad, a farmer in the village of Showaiyeh, said he was shaken awake at
3 a.m. Thursday by shelling about a mile away in the Iraqi town of al-Qaim.
He heard the sound of warplanes. ''There was heavy gunfire that lasted until 6
a.m today,'' the 24-year-old said.



Readers will recall that Matador opened on Sunday. The report above is
datelined Thursday recounting events at a local time of 3 a.m.



In Abu Kamal , a town of 70,000 about three miles from the border,
residents could feel the ground shake from the fighting across the border.
People took to rooftops to watch U.S. fighter jets and helicopter gunships
bombard insurgents hiding in houses in al-Qaim. The Syrians said they could
hear small arms fire from the ground, apparently insurgents returning fire.
Heavy fighting broke out in the area at about midday Wednesday and continued
through daybreak Thursday before it tapered off to sporadic exchanges in the
afternoon.



The fighting has been going on for five days. A number of reports have
suggested that the Marines have hit an empty sack and that the insurgents had
escaped prior to the assault, leaving only those who chose martyrdom to stand
and fight. The duration and intensity of the combat suggests otherwise. The
Syrian townsfolk report US heavy weapons use (fixed wing, helicopter gunships
and probably artillery) and return fire. This type of fire is significant,
because heavy weapons are typically used against entrenched enemy fighters.
Fixed-wing ordnance is often used to attack positions that cannot be harmed by
helicopter missiles because the targets are too strongly built. The fact that
many fires are delivered by night is also suggestive, because it recalls Marine
tactics in Fallujah, when US forces exploited their superior night vision and
surveillance capabilities to maneuver while the enemy was blinded. That in turn
implies that the level of enemy resistance is such that individual positions
have to be reduced by maneuver and destruction. Reports of return fire from
enemy fighters imply they have prepared positions or ammunition caches because
it is hard to keep shooting if they only started out with the ammunition in
their personal bandoliers. The balance of probability is a significant number of
enemy combatants have been caught up in Matador; that the area itself is
liberally supplied with defensive positions and the enemy are fighting to the
death.

Matador


Due to problems with my image server, the maps will be down


I can't do much better than refer readers to Chester,
who has carefully plotted all the known incidents of Operation Matador on a map,
together with a chronology of when each happened. The enemy delivered mortar
fire as the assault began on Sunday and delivered a night-time combined arms
counterattack on Monday and made various attempts to escape by boat or vehicle
on Tuesday. The list of incidents and chronology belie the assertion that the
enemy was gone before the Marines arrived. Chester's map is reproduced below.



One gets the sense that the fluid part of the battle ended on Tuesday morning
and that whatever enemy survived the initial confused hours have now hunkered
down to sell their lives dearly. The use of AT mines, armor piercing ammunition,
mortars plus the provision of enemy troops with body armor suggest the presence
of above-average combatants. Chester concludes:



Analysis: The terrorists are dug in and fighting, or at this point, fought,
in Ubaydi and Rammanah. The number of attacks on Hwy 12 leading to Al Q'aim
suggests that terrorists fleeing to Syria are attacking and being attacked by
an increased Marine presence on the Hwy. Those that escape this force must
then make it past Camp Gannon to withdraw to Syria. All of these attacks are
on the south side of the river, which may not be what was expected.



Fortunately, the Keyhole
company has added a new dataset to their mapbase which allows for greater
resolution of some of the key areas. If we focus on Rammanah, which is in the
bight of the river above, we get the image below. You can clearly see the road
as it departs from the marked GIS blue road line and goes into the village,
which is apparently built on a low scarp overlooking the fields. The houses are
white dots. One possible reason the Euphrates was bridged south was because the
enemy probably anticipated an attack from the north, along the existing road.
Note also that if Chester's plot is correct, the fierce fight in Ubaydi
(approximately where the blue line forks) represents a defense of the crossroads
and the northern road approach into the town. Visually at least it is hard to
see how resistance can be prolonged very long in a place like this.


  


There are only sparse clusters of houses between Rammanah and
Qaim/Qusabayah and that may explain the dumb-bell shape of the pattern of
engagements, although the plotted incidents on Chester's map may not be
precisely located. The second image is of the actual border town of Qaim/Qusabayah.
It is quite an extensive, nearly urban place and it is easy to understand why
insurgents should flee toward the border. Even if they could not actually cross
into Syria, there was probably some expectation of being able to hide in the
bigger town compared to fighting it out in a farming village like Rammanah
above. Clearing the hundreds or thousands of houses in the area of suspects will
take time and soak up the efforts of the Marines.


Wednesday, May 11, 2005

Hearts and Minds


Bill
Roggio
and Chester
have come up with a refined map of what they believe to have happened in
Operation Matador. Their map reflects their common scenario, whose general
characteristics, although speculative, are probably correct based on the
terrain. In general, they believe the Marines have swept west along both sides
of the Euphrates river, along the axis of the river, with blocking positions in
the east. The purpose of these deployments is to basically trap enemy forces
between a hammer and an anvil, the hammer being the forces sweeping west and the
anvil being the blocking forces preventing escape.


For readers who may not have seen military map symbols before, the following
guide to unit types and sizes may prove useful. Thus, in Bill and Chester's
joint map, they believe a cavalry or recon platoon is on the ridge northwest of
the area of operations and it is represented as a diagonally crossed box with
three circles above it.




































Cavalry. An oval in the box means mechanized.
Infantry. An oval in the box means
mechanized.
Squad o
Section oo
Platoon ooo
Company I
Battalion II
Regiment III


Just a few comments. Both sides have been fighting for control of this border
area from the beginning of OIF.  As described in this very old Belmont
Club
post (April, 2004), it was a high intensity battleground even before
the Marines took over from the 82nd Airborne. Opinion may differ over the
relative importance of foreign support to the insurgency flowing along the
Euphrates River line (see The
Western Road
and the River
War
). However, the fact that Operation Matador is taking place at all and is
being fiercely resisted strongly suggests that both the Coalition and the
insurgents regard controlling access to the Syrian border important. That it is
contested is an empirical fact, but the really fascinating question is why
should this be so. My own belief (speculation alert) is that the single most
important requirement of the insurgency is not vast quantities of weapons but a
supply of trained fighters and money. There is very little prospect of moving
very large quantities of munitions and materiel into Iraq from Syria. Camp
Gannon at Qusabayah has closed the road for some time now. But this is
unimportant because there are huge amounts of loose explosive and weaponry lying
around Iraq and the absolute quantities of these needed to wage a terrorist war
is very low. But what is needed, above all, is a steady supply of trainers who
will teach locals to build ever more sophisticated weapons from any available
material; men who are absolutely committed, unwavering and ruthless; and who are
well supplied with money to pay their way. It may be impossible to infiltrate
trucks of materiel through the Syrian border, but it is perfectly feasible to
trickle in terrorist technicians and pedagogues. Cash and small groups of men
are easy to hide. The Counterterrorism
Blog
argues that the most important input of the Iraqi insurgency is
trained militants; and that moreover, its most important output is
trained militants as well.



Nowadays, Zarqawi's "martyrdom" volunteers aggressively prowl the
streets of Iraq in dump trucks, fire engines, and even police cars laden with
tons (literally) of makeshift explosives. Rather than striking at targets of
opportunity, the suicide bombers are often used to kickoff coordinated attacks
on major targets, as seen in recent Al-Qaida operations on the Al-Sadeer Hotel
in Baghdad, Abu Ghraib prison west of Baghdad, Camp Gannon in far western
Iraq, a U.S. intelligence base in Tikrit, and (most recently) the
"Battles of Omar Hadeed and Mohammed Jassem al-Issawi". Many of
these attacks are recorded and subsequently distributed by Zarqawi's Media
Wing; some of them are filmed from several different angles and at close
enough range for the cameraman to be knocked down by the resulting blast. ...
There are few tallies of precisely how many foreign fighters have joined the
insurgency in Iraq since 2003, but the estimated number may now exceed 10,000.
...


While many of these men are quickly "martyred" in local combat
operations (as has undoubtedly occurred frequently in Iraq), the survivors
develop advanced combat experience in an urban environment. They learn in
detail the arts of sabotage, assassinations, suicide bombings, and downing
commercial aircraft with missiles. Eventually, the local conflict comes to an
inexorable end, and the majority of the foreign mujahideen are forced to
exfiltrate the area and return to their countries of origin--Saudi Arabia,
Turkey, Morocco, Algeria, Jordan, Syria, Yemen, Kuwait, and even France and
Italy.



The insurgency becomes a kind of interest-bearing machine in the investment
of militants. That endows Zarqawi with a tremendous operational flexibility.
Logistically, all he has to move is men and money, because the right kind of men
provided by funds, can make weapons anywhere, especially in Iraq. The Euphrates
River ratlines, are above all, a mechanism for moving men and disseminating
deadly learning. For that reason the Syrian border and its approaches are
vitally important to him and he will fight for them. (BTW in historical
campaigns terrorists purposely killed far more local Muslims than their
direct enemies. For example, in Algeria, terrorists killed almost 20 Algerians
for every Frenchman. Terrorists learned that as long as they can maintain a hold
on the population by intimidation it is actually not necessary to
militarily defeat the army of the primary enemy. One point which I think the
Counterterrorism Blog does not discuss is that the Iraqi insurgency is also a
foundry for American militants of a different kind. It creates a mirror cohort
of American experts who have fought Islamic terrorism and learned from it. The
effect of hundreds of thousands of returning veterans whose views and careers
will have been changed by the Global War on Terror is something whose effect has
not yet been measured.)


The US military would at first glance appear to be at a tremendous
disadvantage. Unlike Zarqawi's terrorist force, they must move uniformed men and
vast quantities of materiel and must seem helpless against the Al Qaeda meme
dissemination machine. But in reality it is not so. The US military forms the
counterbackground against which its real maneuver assets, which are intelligence
assets, can operate. Just as Zarqawi's terrorists move in a civilian sea from
which they can improvise weapons, US intelligence assets maneuver in a
battlespace dominated by the uniformed armed forces. In their own way, US
intelligence assets can match Zarqawi's men for flexibility: once they find
Zarqawi's men the American dominated battlespace can quickly kill them. They
have a nimbleness of a different kind. From the US perspective, the Euphrates
River ratlines are a human infrastructure to be disrupted, infiltrated and
turned. For different, but equivalent reasons, the Syrian border and its
approaches are an opportunity to bankrupt Zarqawi's investment in militants.
Some indication the nature of the contest between US intelligence and Zarqawi's
army of zombies, and the role of the uniformed military, which delivers the
actual blow, can be seen in this statement
by Col Bob Chase, operations officer of the 2nd Marine division. "The
enemy, as you expect, once you hit them hard they have a tendency to go to
ground ... There are some locations that we are waiting for the timing to be
correct." From that it is reasonable to infer that we are not witnessing an
isolated operation, but part of a campaign. In the coming months, both sides
will probably attack and counterattack not only in geographical breadth, but in
along the depth of each other's echelons.

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Bandwidth Low


I've used up about 8 of the 12 GB in bandwidth available to host the map
images. That should be enough to last today. I've ordered more bandwidth so things should be OK.

Battle on the Syrian Border


Due to problems with my image server, the maps will be down


The Marine Battle on the Syrian border at which nearly 100 enemy have been
reported killed now turns out to be a heavily fortified area. The Los
Angeles Times
has correspondent Solomon Moore approximately 4 km northwest (Rabit)
from where fighting is taking place referred to in accounts as the Ramana-Obeidi
area. (The first map below from Microsoft Encarta shows variations of the place names) It is in the
cultivated zone right on the edge of the Al Jazira desert, about 5 km from the
Syrian border. From the LA Times account, the Marines approached on the south
side of the river, and took mortar fire from towns on the north side of the
Euphrates. The Marines crossed the river, using bridging and assaulted into the
town.



In nearby Sabah, New Ubaydi, and Karabilah, insurgents fired mortar rounds
at Marine convoys along the river's southern edge. Marines who pursued
attackers in those towns took part in house-to-house combat against dozens of
well-armed insurgents. One Marine was walking into a house when an insurgent
hiding in the basement fired through a floor grate, killing him. Another
Marine, who was retrieving a wounded comrade inside a house, suffered shrapnel
wounds when an insurgent threw a grenade through a window.






The area is a few kilometers to the south of Qaim/Qusabayah, where a Marine
border post has been the subject of repeated attacks. The Chicago
Tribune and The Associated Press
have more details on the degree of
fortification of the towns in which fighting is now taking place.



At the vanguard of the assault, Marines who swept into the Euphrates River
town of Obeidi confronted an enemy they had not expected to find — and one
that attacked in surprising ways. As they pushed from house to house in early
fighting, trying to flush out the insurgents who had attacked their column
with mortar fire, they ran into sandbagged emplacements behind garden walls.
They found a house where insurgents were crouching in the basement, firing
upward through slits hacked at ankle height in the ground-floor walls, aiming
at spots that the Marines' body armor did not cover



The situation described by the Los Angeles Times is plotted in the Keyhole map below. The
Marines appear to have a blocking force in the desert between the towns and the
Syrian border and are conducting operations against enemy in towns on the
northern bank of the Euphrates.



(My apologies for having mislabeled Rabit as 'Ribat')



Update


Bill
Roggio
has many more details. The operation is codenamed Matador. Donald
Sensing
has some additional stuff.

Search Box


In response to requests by readers for a search box, its probably good to point out that there's already a search box on the top left hand corner of this blog.

Monday, May 9, 2005

Shorts



Hat tip: the incomparable MIG

Cries and Whispers


Bizarre news from Sweden. (Hat tip: M.S.) A preacher in Stockholm is under
police protection after being threatened with death for calling the prophet
Mohammed a pedophile. The newspaper Aftenposten
reports:



Celebrity Pentecostal preacher Runar Søgaard is under protection by
Swedish police after receiving death threats. A high-profile sermon where
Sögaard called the prophet Mohammed "a confused pedophile" has
triggered fears of religious war. ... "Even if I see Runar while he has
major police protection I will shoot him to death," a radical Islamist
told Swedish newspaper Expressen. Persons connected to the Kurdish group Ansar
al-Islam claim to have received a fatwa, a decree from a Muslim religious
leader, to kill Søgaard.



Swedish experts claim that Søgaard is at fault.



Islam expert Jan Hjärpe at the University of Lund told Expressen that such
an assassination is a real risk, and he wondered if conflict was the motive
for the sermon. ... "It was a statement from an odd man in an odd sect but the effect is stronger antagonism between different groups. It becomes a pure religious polemic and is extremely unpleasant," Hjärpe told the newspaper.
Hjärpe saw the incident as a type of beginning of a religious war in Sweden. "It (Sögaard's sermon) has power and influence. It seems to have been Runar's intention to provoke and promote antagonism," Hjärpe said.



Blogger The
Fjordman
takes a different view. He regard's the Søgaard incident as part
of a wider breakdown in the civility between Muslim immigrants and native
Swedes. He paints a bleak picture.



Rock throwing and attacks against buses and trains are increasing problems
in some suburbs. In Malmö the bus lines in the area of Rosengård have been
cancelled. In Stockholm, the authorities went even further and stopped both
the bus traffic in the Tensta suburb and the train to Nynäshamn. Head of the
bus company in the city of Uppsala, Claes-Göran Alm, is considering doing the
same, as the harassment is costing too much money and is putting their
employees at risk. Benny Persson is selling window glass in the areas south of
Stockholm. According to him, they sometimes have to jump into the car and
leave the spot, as they are met with the harassment that some of the bus
companies in the suburbs are experiencing: Stone throwing and threats. The
same thing is reported from Gothenburg, Sweden’s second largest city. The
company Hemglass are now attempting to run double crews in their cars to face
the problems, but they still have had to completely abandon an area outside
Södertälje. If you get stuck in an elevator outside Stockholm, you risk
staying there for a long time. The repair personnel now demand security guards
present when they arrive, since several of their employees have been
physically attacked. The most serious problem, however, is the delay of
ambulances and the fire department. According to the Emergency Central,
attacks against them have become commonplace in the cities. Every Saturday, at
least five to ten times emergency personnel are asking for police escort to be
able to do their job.



Quoting a New York academic now living in Sweden, The Fjordman
believes part of the problem is that Swedish public figures have been studiously
avoiding noticing the elephant in the living room. "No debate about
immigration polices is possible, the subject is simply avoided. Sweden has such
a close connection between the various powerful groups, politicians,
journalists, etc. The political class is closed, isolated."


These are powerful accusations. Part of the challenge facing the new Internet
media is to find a robust method for collaterally confirming such reports, which
are sparsely covered in the regular media. The Fjordman's post is
liberally sprinkled with links (many of which are unfortunately, for me at
least, in Swedish) so there is little doubt that many of the individual
incidents he refers to are true. So it's a good start. But in order to really
gauge the magnitude and severity of the situation there is really a need for
more investigative blogging. It's a fair bet that the MSM, which still provides
the bulk of primary reporting, has gaps in its coverage and there are some --
such as this one -- which are too important to miss.

Freedom for the Bali Bomber?


American
Expat in Southeast Asia
reports that Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, the spiritual head
of the Jemaah Islamiyah, may be released early -- before the end of the year --
as a consequence of increasing domestic pressure to absolve him of culpability.



Back on 3 March 2005 CNN reported that Abu Bakar Ba'asyir would recieved a
jail term of 30 months for his involvement in the bombing. What they didn't
cover or tell you then were the details of the case and what led to such a
lenient sentence including captured members of Jemaah Islamiyah retracting
statements and the testimony of an American citizen. ... by the name of Fred
Burks who had been working as a translator for the State Department and had
attended a meeting together with the CIA and the NSA at the residence of
Indonesia's president Megawati Sukarnoputri.



This seems to be the same Fred Burks who authored a glowing review in Al
Jazeerah
of the BBC documentary The Power of Nightmares. Burks wrote:



This revealing BBC documentary digs deep into the roots of the war on
terror, only to find that much of the widespread fear in the post 9/11 world
has been fabricated by those in power for their own interests. The intrepid
BBC team presents highly informative interviews with top officials and experts
in combating terrorism who raise serious questions about who is behind all of
the fear-mongering.


This eye-opening documentary shows that, especially after 9/11, fear has
been used to manipulate the public into giving up civil liberties and turning
over ever more power to elite groups with their own hidden agendas.


In my own experience as an interpreter for US and foreign presidents, I
have personally witnessed some of the manipulations mentioned in the above
documentary. Having worked as an Indonesian interpreter with the US Department
of State for over 18 years, I recently testified to this in the widely
publicized trial of Indonesian Muslim cleric Abu Bakar Ba'asyir. Among other
things, Mr. Ba'asyir is accused by US authorities of being the mastermind
behind JI (Jemaah Islamiah), which is alleged to be a sister organization of
Al Qaeda. Many Indonesians are quite skeptical of these allegations. Like me
and the BBC video, they question whether JI was largely fabricated by powerful
elite groups with hidden agendas.


At the trial, I testified about a Sept. 2002 secret meeting at which I
interpreted for President of Indonesia Megawati Soekarnoputri, US Ambassador
Ralph Boyce, National Security Council representative Karen Brooks, and a
special assistant sent personally by President Bush (who revealed privately to
me that she was a CIA agent). The "special assistant" pressured
President Megawati to secretly capture and turn over Abu Bakar Ba'asyir to the
United States. Yet US authorities have continually denied ever putting any
pressure on Jakarta to act against Ba'asyir.


Sunday, May 8, 2005

The Man Who Knew Too Much


Paul Volcker has asked the UN to instruct a former investigator probing the
Oil For Food Program not to comply with a Senate subpoena to provide it with
information on the Oil for Food program . Fox
News
reports:



Volcker said Friday that Congress has to restrain itself from requiring
certain acts and information from current or former IIC members as it conducts
hearings into Oil-for-Food. "It is essential that it also protect the
integrity and the confidentiality of the independent investigating
committee," Volcker told reporters in New York, saying the probe involved
"highly sensitive matters."


"Lives of certain witnesses are at stake," he added. "We're
not playing games here, we are dealing, and let me just emphasize this, in
some cases, with lives." In a later question-and-answer session, Volcker
did not elaborate too much on who may be threatened if too much information
about who has cooperated is publicized, saying, "I couldn't tell you
specifically who was threatening witnesses."



The two reports so far issued by Paul Volcker have dealt with the formal
remit of the Oil For Food Program; the procedures under which bids were let; the
dubious relationship between Kojo Annan and Cotecna and the possible but
isolated malfeasance of Benon Sevan. By his own account, Vocker found ineptitude
but not criminality. While he cannot exonerate the Secretary General, nothing in
the Volcker reports so far can put a smoking gun in Kofi Annan's hands. So far,
it has been a story of incompetence without a crime or a criminal mastermind; of
people who resemble conspirators without being members of a conspiracy.


Volcker's implicaton that the "lives of certain witnesses are at
stake", though he would not name who specifically "was threatening
witnesses" clearly indicates that despite his first two reports, something
criminal, indeed murderous lies within the Oil for Food
universe. Something that could get people killed. Having excluded the
possibility of a criminal conspiracy in his first two reports, Volcker now wants
to prevent former investigator Robert Parton from divulging certain undisclosed
details to the US Congress because he fears that the "lives of certain
witnesses are at stake". That which was denied is now invoked.


There are two possible scenarios at this juncture. The first is that Volcker
himself intended to uncover the criminal elements he now warns against in his
final report and fears that Parton will jeopardize his careful strategy. The
second is that Volcker considered these criminally-related aspects irrelevant to
investigation.


Volcker's appeal to the United Nations to prevent the Parton from testifying
does not look good since he is asking Kofi Annan, the very man under
investigation to prevent the release of information that is part of the probe.
Was not the very purpose of the IIC to uncover possible criminal activity in the
Oil for Food Program? The UN has only accepted the charge of incompetence, but not
criminality
in the management of the Oil For Food Program. At a UN
press conference
following the second Volcker report, Kofi Annan's chief of
staff Mark Malloch Brown had this exchange with journalists, after Annan had
left the room.



Question: Since you keep raising the “he’s-no-crook” defence, let me
ask you about management. By now, the guy that he handpicked to run
oil-for-food was found totally discredited; his Chief of Staff was cited in
this latest report for doing something that the report finds not credible --
his explanation is not credible; the head of OIOS was found to be lacking in
his investigation of oil-for-food; his son was found to be lacking; and his
relatives were found to be lacking. Is the circle closing, and is it time --
is Mr. Annan, indeed, as Richard asked, the man to lead this huge undertaking
of reform at the UN?


Mr. Malloch Brown: Let’s first agree: I’ll answer the question “Is
the circle closing?” if you’ll answer the question “Has the ground
moved?” Are you giving up on what I would characterize as the “he’s-innocent-so-lay-off”
defence? He’s not a crook.


Question: That’s what Richard Nixon said, too.


Mr. Malloch Brown: Well, that’s why I’m saying -- in other words, let’s
first agree that the story has probably moved decisively on today, from
probably a final slaying of the ghosts on “there was corruption in this by
the Secretary-General” to a second issue, which is, was the management
effective enough? And on that, he’s the first to acknowledge it evidently
wasn’t. A number of individuals have now been cited in ways which are
enormously damaging to the Organization and to all of us who work for it.


But hence, again, the important bit of Volcker, which is the
forward-looking bit of Volcker, which is, having disposed of any charges of
criminality and corruption against the system as a whole and against the
Secretary-General
, but having pinpointed failings by others, how do we,
moving forward, put in place the management reforms that address that? And I
would argue, the kind of things we’re doing on more open, high-quality
selection of senior staff, the reform of procurement and audit, the
strengthening of OIOS going forward -- all of these issues are a very serious
response to the issues raised and show that the Secretary-General takes this
very seriously.



We have Annan's and Malloch Brown's categorical assurance on that Volcker
found nothing criminal in combing through the UN system. What is there in
Parton's box of documents that may be worth killing witnesses for?