Egypt

Egyptian Special Operations have arrested four leaders of the Muslim
Brotherhood in Cairo. According to the Washington
Post:

Abdel Moneim Mahmoud, a senior Brotherhood member, said police arrested
Essam el-Erian, one of the organization's most senior members, and three other
leaders during raids on several homes in Cairo. "They took them to police
cars waiting outside surrounded by masked members of the Egyptian special
operations forces," Mahmoud said. Police also detained more than 130
Brotherhood members in Cairo and outside the capital, said Abdel-Galil el-Sharnoubi,
editor of the group's Web site. ... Although banned since 1954, the Muslim
Brotherhood is probably Egypt's largest opposition movement and the government
tolerates some of its activities. Fifteen Brotherhood members hold seats in
parliament, having been elected as independents.

The question is why. Ha'aretz
suggests the arrests are not necessarily extraordinary: just a roundup of the
usual suspects over the occasional political difference.

The Muslim Brotherhood, established in 1928 and banned since 1954, is used
to intermittent government crackdowns. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said
in an interview with Egyptian television last month that he would not allow
any religious group to become a political party but added that he would not
object to Muslim Brotherhood members joining political parties.

But News24
and the BBC are more specific: they suggest that Mubarak is eliminating any
roadblocks to an uncontested Presidential election. 

The banned Muslim Brotherhood has been in open confrontation with Egyptian
authorities for the first time in 24 years with its wave of protests demanding
an end to President Hosni Mubarak's "dictatorship". ... Under
growing domestic and international pressure, the 77-year-old Mubarak agreed
last February to amend the constitution to allow multi-candidate elections for
the first time in Egypt's history. The amendment is to be discussed in a
parliament plenary session on May 10, but Mubarak has yet to announce whether
he will run for a fifth six-year term in presidential elections in September.
Under the proposed changes, a candidate would need the support of 10% of
lawmakers and other members of regional and local councils, all bodies which
are dominated by Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP). "The Muslim
Brotherhood is using foreign pressure on the Egyptian regime to improve its
own political and legal standing," said political analyst Nabil Abdel
Fattah.

The BBC
reports that it will be hard for the Muslim Brotherhood, or any other opposition
party, to get the 10% support to field a candidate to run against Mubarak,
though perhaps the Egyptian leader is not taking any chances.

Under the planned law an independent candidate would need to be endorsed by
65 of the 444 members of parliament. Correspondents say an independent is
unlikely to get such backing as the ruling party has an overwhelming majority
in parliament. Independents - including supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood -
make up the most vigorous opposition in Egypt, but number fewer than the 65
needed to endorse an independent candidate.

But at any rate, the opposition may see this as their chance to unseat
Mubarak. If so, the Muslim Brotherhood is ironically banking on the US-driven
"Arab Spring" to obtain its share of power. Fouad Adjami in his recent
Foreign Affairs article, The Autumn of the Autocrats
argues that in general, the Arab dictators can no longer hold the line. (Hat
tip: DL) The powerlessness of the Middle Eastern President's Club was ironically
established first in Iraq and then Lebanon, when no one rode to Saddam's rescue
or to Assad's. Who then will ride to Mubarak's?

Cairo will not intercede on behalf of Damascus. If the Egyptians attempt
it, their intervention will come without conviction. U.S. policy owes no
deference to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. If anything, the Bush
administration's new emphasis on reform and liberty only highlights the
inadequacy of Mubarak's own regime. ...

But suddenly it seems like the autumn of the dictators. Something different
has been injected into this fight. The United States -- a great foreign power
that once upheld the Arab autocrats, fearing what mass politics would bring --
now braves the storm. It has signaled its willingness to gamble on the young,
the new, and the unknown. Autocracy was once deemed tolerable, but terrorists,
nurtured in the shadow of such rule, attacked the United States on September
11, 2001. Now the Arabs, grasping for a new world, and the Americans, who have
helped usher in this unprecedented moment, together ride this storm wave of
freedom.

The price of reaching for the prize of liberating the Middle East is the
acceptance of the attendant dangers. That does not mean the goal is not worth
striving for, only that in advancing, the sword and shield must be held at
guard. The American wave that swept Saddam from power will logically shake the
foundations in Cairo and Riyadh. In more ways than one, Iraq was a surprisingly
decisive campaign; though what the decision will be, history has yet to reveal.