H1N1 update: Australia/Hong Kong/US

While CDC has not committed to a strategy beyond Tamiflu (to which some viral strains in Hong Kong have resistance), Australia faces a major H1N1 outbreak, as the southern hemisphere winter just began. But mathematical modelling suggests the US has already experienced 1 million H1N1 cases.

On May 17, Australia moved to a new national health alert level, called “protect,” to focus on the early treatment of those vulnerable to [severe illness from] the flu, including pregnant women, people with respiratory disease, heart disease, diabetes and obesity. And on July 2, Australia's Health Minister, Nicola Roxon, reassured parents that swine flu does not pose a greater danger to children than seasonal flu.

Separately, Sydney immunisation specialist Robert Booy said swine flu was likely to kill twice as many children over the next 12 months as regular influenza. The professor estimated 10-12 children could die from the virus, compared with five or six from normal flu strains in a typical year.

In the US, normally under 100 children die each year as a result of seasonal influenza infections. To prevent an estimated 100 excess deaths (this is a very rough estimate), up to 75 million children might receive a vaccine containing novel adjuvants, for which testing was limited.